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Surge in house prices predicted for West homes

By Western Daily Press  |  Posted: December 03, 2012

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Property owners in the South West can expect a big jump in the value of their homes over the next few years, according to new research.

Industry experts says house prices in the region are set to jump a cumulative 29 per cent between now and the end of 2016.

The forecast comes in the BNP Paribas Real Estate’s recently published Housing and The Economy report pulled together by Professor Patrick Minford, a former economics adviser to Margaret Thatcher and current Professor of Economics at Cardiff Business School.

Countrywide the overall picture is also positive according to the numbers, with 24 per cent growth expected between now and 2016.

However, growth this year is likely to be -1.1 per cent following last year’s marginal fall of -0.2 per cent. Next year is looking more positive, with a forecast growth of 0.9 per cent, said the report’s authors.

Peter White, head of agency at the firm’s Bristol office, said the region’s housing market was doing well.

He said: “The South West housing market has performed well over the last five years and outside London it is the second best performing region, behind the South East. Over the last five years, South West house prices have grown -0.1 per cent per annum compared to -0.2 per cent per annum in the UK.

“Looking at the five year forecast on a year-by-year basis, next year will be a pivotal year for the region’s housing market. After two years of falling house prices, 2013 will mark the return to growth with prices forecast to rise 0.4 per cent. House prices will then continue to rise year-on-year until 2016.

“When comparing forecast South West house price growth against other regions across the country, the outlook for the South West can be considered relatively upbeat.”

Other industry insiders said a lack of available housing across the region had helped to keep prices relatively stable.

Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, which regularly asks 1,500 estate agents and surveyors across the country about achievable selling prices, said the current ease-up in South West prices was not as bad as last year.

He said: “The slowdown in the housing market over the final half of 2012 has been less pronounced than that seen over 2011, despite pressure on household incomes.”

Mr Donnell pointed to recent figures released by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) showing lending has increased, which he said reflected lenders offering more competitive mortgage deals as a result of a multi-billion-pound Government scheme launched in August to kick-start lending.

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  • Brit1234  |  December 08 2012, 4:18PM

    RE "Industry experts says house prices in the region are set to jump a cumulative 29 per cent between now and the end of 2016." I think the term industry experts is very misleading, BNP Paribas Real Estate's has a vested interest in talking up the market. Just having the term real estate in the title does not make them experts. In this report there is no backing up of their conclusion, so what's it based on? We know that most locals are priced out of the property market, their wages are rising less than inflation. People are getting poorer so where is the money going to come for these over priced properties to rise another 30%? Will it be relying on London city workers to purchase holiday homes or buy to lets? There numbers are down due to redundancies, bonus cuts and migration to other financial cities. Then you have the council tax changes for multiple properties in the region. Anyone expecting rises will be disappointed.

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